May 28th, 2009 Graig
First, the results of my predictions on round 3:
Eastern Final
Pittsburgh vs. Carolina - I said: Penguins in six | actual: Pens in four
(I could tell it was all over by the third period of Game 2, really)
West
Detroit vs. Chicago - I said: Red Wings in five | actual: Red Wings in five
(it played out almost exactly as I expected, except that the Wings got wounded, and Khabibulin was out after game 3. Huet had an awful game 4 but was stellar in game 5.. but just not good enough)
In round three I was 100% accurate on the winning team (2 for 2) with 50% accuracy with winning team and games.
In round two I was only 25% accurate on the winning team (1 for 4) with 0% accuracy with winning team and games.
In round one I was 62.% accurate (5 for 8) and 37.5% accurate (3 for 8) with winning teams and games.
Round 4 - Stanley Cup Final
vs. 
For the first time in 25 years, the same two teams are playing in back-to-back finals. The Detroit Red Wings and the Pittsburgh Penguins met last year, going six games, although the Pens weren’t nearly as hungry or disciplined, and their playoff legs were shaky. In 1983, the Great One’s Edmonton Oilers lost out to the streaking New York Islanders (winning their fourth in a row), but established their dynasty one year later, in the 1984 rematch against the Isles (winning five cups in seven years). Is Crosby and Malkin the new Gretzky and Messier? Not likely. Perhaps more apt is they’re the new Lemieux and Jagr.
Detroit has been to the Stanley Cup Final five times in the past twelve years (winning all five times), six times in the past fourteen (the last time they lost a final was against New Jersey in ‘95) , which is pretty incredible in a 30-team league. Detroit was the last team to win back-to-back Cups in ‘97 and ‘98 seasons. As Aden says, it’s the closest we have to a dynasty in hockey right now.
Will they do it again? Tough to say. Pittsburgh is looking hungry right now, their captain has so much more composure this year and has elevated his game to the superstardom he was expected to have last year, and the fact that Malkin finally arrived in the playoffs with all cylinders firing against Carolina spells plenty of trouble. Crosby and Malkin incredibly have 28 points each. Detroit, though, is the walking wounded, with Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Ericksson currently out and Draper perhaps not feeling his oats, while the Pens are really only dealing with a wounded, but functional, Gonchar. But the Red Wings’ greatest strength is their depth, and they have four solid lines, each quite capable of scoring, which is where they succeed while others fail. But Pittsburgh has assembled some depth themselves and their line-to-line match-ups should prove very interesting.
On the goalie side, both Fleury and Osgood are underappreciated for their skill. Yes, Chris Osgood isn’t a flashy or particularly dynamic goalie, but he’s steely, and with three Stanley Cup rings on his fingers already, he’s proven that he’s got what it takes to elevate his game during the post season. Yes, he’s surrounded by probably the best defensive team in the league, but just check out the last few games against Chicago for how good he’s been in net, his GAA (2.06) through three rounds (playing 16 games) as proof. Marc-Andre Fleury, meanwhile, has a 2.65 GAA, which is about as average as you can get out of a top-line starting goalie. He’s made some incredible saves, but also let in some softies. He’s a much more acrobatic goalie than Osgood, which Detroit will either be stymied by or readily exploit.
The story the media is drooling over is the Hossa factor, as he rejected a sweet offer from Pittsburgh for this season to hop aboard Detroit at a reduced rate in hopes of capturing Cup glory. I don’t think he expected to be facing his (briefly) former teammates in the final. Hossa finally reappeared these playoffs in Game 5 against Chicago after hiding out most of the conference finals. He was absolutely inspired even if he had no goals to show for it.
It’s going to be a hell of a final, and I expect games where both teams are scoring high, and games where both teams are stymied by goaltending. That they have a mere 10 days to play 7 games (should it come to that) is demanding for them, but exciting for hockey fans.
Game 1 and 2 are dangerously back-to-back this Saturday and Sunday in Detroit (with CBC and NBC showing their pull with the NHL). Saturday’s game starts at 8pm, and typically Sunday games start early to mid-afternoon (between 1:00 and 3:00), which means if Game 1 goes into overtime, both teams might only get 12 hours to recouperate.
Who shows up and pulls off the Game 2 victory will likely decide who’s going to win.
Aden’s useless stat is the last time she had a baby, the Red Wings won the Cup, so history might hold true again. But my (highly hesitant) prediction, given how the two teams played in Round 3, is Pittsburgh in seven, MVP going to Crosby.
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